Research

WORKING PAPERS

Commodity Booms and The Environment (with Daniel Da Mata)  (link to working paper)

This paper studies how production responses from agricultural commodity booms affect greenhouse gas emissions, the primary cause of climate change. Using novel data and a shift-share strategy, we show that Brazilian localities more exposed to booms exhibit substantially increased deforestation and agricultural fires, leading to higher emissions. However, commodity booms also lead to production responses that decrease emissions, such as higher output per area. Taking into account higher- and lower-emission production responses to measure net effects, high-exposure localities show an increase in net emissions. Moreover, our findings highlight that positive economic shocks may have unintended consequences, as high-exposure localities present a lower adoption of an emission-curbing policy.

Technological Progress and Climate Change: Evidence from the Agricultural Sector (with  Daniel Da Mata and Thiago Lobo)  (link to working paper)

We provide evidence of how technological progress affects greenhouse gas emissions. Using a dynamic difference-in-differences design, we show that producers in Brazilian localities with high suitability for genetically engineered seeds increase crop output by substituting away from higher-emission activities (such as livestock breeding). This increase in crop output is not accompanied by deforestation and fires---two major greenhouse gas emitters. Further, our findings indicate that the agriculture sector emits greenhouse gases more efficiently after the land-use change, presenting higher productivity for a given emission level. Back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that achieving the same agricultural output level without genetically engineered seeds would require emissions to be 25\% higher. Our evidence suggests that technological innovations may increase production and simultaneously offset emissions.

Industrial Activity and Land Degradation: Evidence from Slaughterhouse Openings in Brazil (with Daniel Da Mata and Edson Severnini) (working paper available upon request)

We study the effects of industrial plant openings on bovine production and deforestation. Using a staggered differences-in-differences approach, we show that opening a slaughterhouse in a given region increases pastureland at the cost of forest area. Moreover, after the introduction of a certification-like, legally-enforced commitment between slaughterhouses and prosecutors in the Amazon region, we show that opening new slaughterhouses led to positive impacts on forest area and higher bovine productivity. Our results suggest that agreeable-enforcement can generate positive production and environmental impacts.

Estimating Behavioral Inattention (with Jonathan Benchimol and Lahcen Bounader)  (working paper available upon request)

Estimating behavioral inattention is challenging, especially concerning macroeconomic variables. Using harmonized data and Bayesian estimation techniques, we provide identified and robust estimates of macroeconomic and microeconomic inattention for OECD countries. Our results show pos- itive relationships between macroeconomic volatilities and estimated inat- tention parameters. We also highlight the role of the monetary policy regime, fiscal discipline, and accountability in influencing inattention levels. Trans- mission channels between macroeconomic volatility and inattention levels depend on country characteristics and the type of inattention. The volatility of the output gap’s response to technology and monetary policy shocks pos- itively relates to the macro inattention of firms and households, respectively. The preference shock positively relates to the inattention to prices.

A Behavioral New Keynesian Model for Brazil (with Joaquim Andrade )  (working paper available upon request)

We build and estimate a behavioral New Keynesian model for the Brazilian economy to study monetary- and fiscal-policy interactions. Using the model, we estimate macro inattention parameters for consumers and firms via Bayesian methods. Moreover, we simulate monetary and fiscal dominance contexts to draw policy lessons under different regimes. Our results suggest the monetary authority should pursue its inflation target in monetary dominance situations while it should accommodate for public debt trajectory in fiscal dominance contexts. 

WORK IN PROGRESS

Land-use Change and Land-use Cover: Evidence from Brazilian Farms (with  Thiago Lobo) 

Unconditional Income Transfers and Economic Development: Evidence from Brumadinho (with R. De Pieri and J. Sampaio)

Green Finance and Climate Change: Evidence from Brazil

PUBLICATIONS

Articles in Brazilian Journals

Fatores que Influenciam o Preço da Energia Elétrica no Brasil: uma abordagem hedônica. Revista Brasileira de Energia. 2016. (with Lilian Lima) - link

Book Chapters

Chapter 16 - Behavioral Aspects of the Coffee Consumer in Different Countries: The Case of Brazil. In: Coffee Consumption and Industry Strategies in Brazil. 2019. (with several co-authors) - link