Research

My research mostly focuses on applied economics. My main fields of interest are environmental and agricultural economics (including climate change economics), and I am also interested in applied macro.

WORKING PAPERS

Commodity Booms, Emissions and Climate Mitigation Policies (with Daniel Da Mata)  (link to working paper)

This paper examines how production responses to agricultural commodity booms affect greenhouse gas emissions and the take-up of climate mitigation policies. Using a shift-share approach, we find that Brazilian localities more exposed to booms exhibit increased emissions due to agricultural expansion and land allocation. While booms also lead to emissions-reducing responses like higher output per area, the net effect is an increase in emissions. Moreover, we show that commodity booms lead to lower adoption of an emission-curbing policy promoting sustainable farming practices. Our findings suggest that positive economic shocks may undermine climate mitigation efforts by reducing climate policy uptake.

Technological Progress and Climate Change: Evidence from the Agricultural Sector (with  Daniel Da Mata and Thiago Lobo)  (link to working paper) (Submitted)

We investigate whether technological progress can decouple output growth from greenhouse gas emissions. Using a dynamic difference-in-differences design, we show that producers in Brazilian localities with high suitability for genetically modified seeds increase crop output. This increased crop output is not accompanied by deforestation, fires, or more livestock counts---three major emitters. Our findings show that the emissions did not increase in the agricultural sector, such that the sector presents lower emissions per output. The effects are not limited to agriculture; manufacturing-related emissions are affected and increase. Although the combined emissions from agriculture and manufacturing increased following the introduction of genetically modified seeds, the overall emissions growth was smaller in magnitude compared to output growth. Our findings indicate that technological innovations can affect emissions of the targeted sector and have meaningful spillovers to other economic sectors.

Industrial Activity, Deforestation, and Land Degradation: Evidence from Brazil (with Daniel Da Mata and Edson Severnini) (draft paper available upon request)

Does industrial activity lead to deforestation and land degradation? Is it possible to overcome limited state capacity to decouple economic activity from environmental degradation? We study these questions in the context of slaughterhouse plant openings in Brazil. Using difference-in-differences, we show that opening a plant increases livestock production at the cost of forest area and pastureland degradation. However, after the introduction of legally-enforceable commitments between slaughterhouses and federal prosecutors that penalize plants for buying livestock from illegally deforested areas, opening a plant leads to higher productivity without increasing deforestation. Our results suggest that agreeable commitments can generate positive economic and environmental outcomes.

Climate Shocks, Agricultural Specialization and Emissions (draft paper available upon request)

This paper examines how climate variability influences agricultural specialization and its effects on greenhouse gas emissions. Drawing on comprehensive data from Brazil and leveraging rainfall variations, I demonstrate that farmers shift land use toward more climate-resilient crops and livestock in response to climate shocks, resulting in regional agricultural specialization. Additionally, this specialization contributes to higher net greenhouse gas emissions, suggesting that increased weather variability driven by climate change may, in turn, exacerbate climate change through its impact on agricultural practices.

Estimating Behavioral Inattention (with Jonathan Benchimol and Lahcen Bounader)  (working paper available upon request) (Submitted)

Behavioral inattention poses significant challenges for empirical estimation and carries profound implications for macroeconomic dynamics. This paper provides the first cross-country estimates of micro- and macro-level inattention parameters using a micro-founded behavioral New Keynesian model. Employing Bayesian techniques on harmonized OECD data and ensuring robust parameter identification, we uncover substantial heterogeneity in inattention across countries. Our findings reveal that more volatile macroeconomic environments are associated with higher levels of attention, while stable environments foster attenuated attention. We further elucidate the determinants of inattention, demonstrating that institutional quality, macroeconomic surprises, and the intensity of online searches for economic terms significantly influence behavioral (in)attention. These results offer an empirical foundation for the calibration of country-specific models, which is key in the transmission and the design of monetary policy under bounded rationality.

COVID-19 Lockdowns, Air Quality and Health Outcomes: Evidence from Brazil's Largest Metropolitan Area (with R. Da Costa and S. Goldbaum) (draft paper available upon request)

This paper investigates the effects of COVID-19 lockdowns on air quality and health outcomes in the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area, Brazil. Using a dynamic difference-in-differences approach, we analyze the impact of reduced economic activity on pollutants such as particulate matter, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen dioxide. While PM2.5, PM10, and SO2 experienced temporary reductions, the effects dissipated within months. Furthermore, despite these pollution decreases, respiratory-related hospital admissions increased, likely driven by COVID-19 infections. Our results suggest that the pandemic itself had a larger impact on health outcomes than the temporary improvements in air quality.

Fiscal and Monetary Interactions: Evidence from a Behavioral New Keynesian Model for Brazil (with Joaquim Andrade )  (draft paper available upon request)

We build and estimate a behavioral New Keynesian model for the Brazilian economy to study monetary- and fiscal-policy interactions. We then estimate macro inattention parameters for consumers and firms using Brazilian data with Bayesian methods. More over, we simulate monetary and fiscal dominance contexts to infer economic lessons under different policy regimes. We find the monetary authority should pursue its inflation target in monetary dominance situations and it should accommodate for public debt trajectory in fiscal dominance contexts.

SELECTED WORK IN PROGRESS

The Causes of Agricultural Fires: Evidence from Sugar-Cane Production in Brazil

Land Reform and Land Use: Evidence from Brazil (with  Thiago Lobo) 

Climate Change and Education: Impacts on Brazilian Schools (with R. Pieri)

PUBLICATIONS

Articles in Brazilian Journals

Fatores que Influenciam o Preço da Energia Elétrica no Brasil: uma abordagem hedônica. Revista Brasileira de Energia. 2016. (with Lilian Lima) - link

Book Chapters

Chapter 16 - Behavioral Aspects of the Coffee Consumer in Different Countries: The Case of Brazil. In: Coffee Consumption and Industry Strategies in Brazil. 2019. (with several co-authors) - link